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Racing Analysis by Steve Haskin

As inundated as Todd Pletcher is with Triple Crown contenders, you can bet the majority of Pletcher’s help will be rooting for Circular Quay in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I). Not that they won’t be ecstatic if one of Pletcher’s other Derby hopefuls wins, but there seems to be a soft spot in everyone’s heart for this colt, who actually got Pletcher’s amazing class of ’07 rolling last summer, winning the Bashford Manor Stakes (gr. III) and Hopeful Stakes (gr. I) with spectacular stretch runs.

When he was unable to duplicate those late charges going two turns, the skeptics immediately branded him a one-turn closer. But Pletcher & Co. never lost faith in the colt.

His first attempt around two turns, in the Lane’s End Breeders’ Futurity (gr. I), resulted in a second behind Great Hunter, but it was obvious to Pletcher that Circular Quay did not care for Keeneland’s Polytrack surface as much as a regular dirt track. In the Bessemer Trust Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (gr. I), he had a rough start, dropping some 20 lengths out of it, and made a big move before having to swing six wide turning for home. He managed to pull away from Great Hunter this time, but Street Sense, with a rail trip the whole way, turned in a freaky effort to win by 10 lengths.

Even the skeptics threw out his 3-year-old debut, the Risen Star Stakes (gr. III), when he had to perform some acrobatics to avoid a horse that had clipped heels directly in front of him, throwing his rider. Appearing to be eased, he somehow regrouped and came flying late to finish fifth.

It was time for redemption in the Louisiana Derby (gr. II). With a clear path outside of horses, he charged past the entire field and drew off to win by 21⁄4 lengths, reestablishing himself as one of the leading Derby contenders.

If he goes on to take home the roses on the first Saturday in May, expect Team Pletcher to shed its corporate image and show a side to themselves the public has never seen before.

Pedigree Profile by Avalyn Hunter

The “Gray Ghost,” Native Dancer, was American horse racing’s first television idol and one of the great racehorses of all time. Marked by both his distinctive gray coat and by a style that often saw him swooping by his hapless opponents after dropping well off the pace, the Dancer won 21 of 22 starts with a combination of blinding speed and classic stamina.

Circular Quay appears to have inherited both his talent and his closing style quite honestly, for he is inbred 4x4x5 to Northern Dancer and 4x5x5 to Raise a Native. As a result, he is line bred 5x6x6x6x7x6 to Native Dancer, whose influence on international breeding appears to be continuing unabated.

Circular Quay is by Thunder Gulch, the North American champion 3-year-old male of 1995 and winner of both the Kentucky Derby (gr. I) and Belmont Stakes (gr. I). Since leading the 2001 general sire list on the strength of Point Given’s Horse of the Year season, Thunder Gulch has had a rather uneven stud career, though he is represented in 2007 not only by Circular Quay, but also by the star filly Balance, recent winner of the Santa Margarita Invitational Handicap (gr. I).

Speed comes to Circular Quay through his dam, Circle of Life, winner of the 1999 Spinaway Stakes (gr. I) as a juvenile. Her sire, Belong to Me (by Danzig), was also a quick horse, winning the Boojum Handicap (gr. III) and Best Turn Stakes (gr. III) over six furlongs as a 3-year-old before settling down to a useful stud career.

The second dam of Circular Quay, Concentric, managed only one placing in 10 starts, but her sire, Shadeed (by Nijinsky II), also showed plenty of speed, winning the classic General Accident Two Thousand Guineas (Eng-I).

Traffic problems may be an issue for Circular Quay in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I) thanks to his come-from-behind style. Nonetheless, his combination of stamina with a proven turn of foot should make him one of the more exciting runners to watch if he can get clear sailing.