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Racing Analysis by Steve Haskin

The scent of roses that had overwhelmed Barclay Tagg in 2003 still emanated around him early last year as he stood near the training track at Ocala Stud, hoping to find the next Funny Cide. One of his owners, Elizabeth Valando, had asked him to go to the farm to look at her 2-year-old colt Nobiz Like Shobiz, a strapping son of Albert the Great who had caught the eye of everyone at the farm.

The colt was brought to the track and broke off into a jog. That was all Tagg needed to see. Although normally ultra-conservative in his praise, especially for young horses, he excitedly called Valando to give her his opinion of her colt.

"I’ve never done this with an owner, but I said to her, ‘This is the most gorgeous horse I’ve ever seen. If he’s not a Triple Crown candidate, they’ve never made one,’ " Tagg recalled.

Tagg’s words proved to be prophetic, at least to this point, as Nobiz Like Shobiz, named in honor of Valando’s late husband, Tommy, whose record company produced the original cast albums for many of Broadway’s top hits, is one of the early favorites for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I).

Following a spectacular debut, in which he demonstrated a brilliant turn of foot, winning by 103⁄4 lengths, Nobiz Like Shobiz finished a game second in the Champagne Stakes (gr. I) after a poor start and a rough trip. He rebounded with a 61⁄2-length victory in the 11⁄8-mile Remsen Stakes (gr. II) to close out a promising 2-year-old campaign.

In his 3-year-old debut, he captured the one-mile Holy Bull Stakes (gr. III), battling on the lead most of the way, and although he raced greenly, drifting in and not changing leads until inside the eighth pole, it still provided a good first step on the road to the Derby.

He should become more professional with a return to his normal stalking running style, and then we’ll have a better idea just how just how strong a Derby contender he really is.

Pedigree Profile by Avalyn Hunter

August Belmont II once told William Woodward Sr., "Billy, breed stoutness, because when you get one that can run, you have a really good horse." Following that advice, Woodward bred five winners of the 12-furlong Belmont Stakes.

Few modern breeders follow Belmont’s advice. But when Elizabeth Valando sent her homebred Storm Cat mare Nightstorm to Albert the Great, she was putting together a pedigree with no shortage of stoutness. That staying power, combined with the brilliance typical of the Storm Cats, appears to have produced a top Triple Crown prospect in Nobiz Like Shobiz.

Nobiz Like Shobiz represents the male line of Ribot, which has produced seven winners of Triple Crown races in the midst of the flood of horses descended from Northern Dancer and Raise a Native. The last was Go for Gin (by Cormorant, by His Majesty, by Ribot), winner of the 1994 Kentucky Derby (gr. I).

A disappointment while at Claiborne Farm, Go for Gin is now in Maryland. Before leaving Kentucky, however, he sired Albert the Great, winner of the 2000 Jockey Club Gold Cup (gr. I). Albert the Great is out of the Fappiano mare Bright Feather and, like his son, represents a cross of a stout line over miler speed.

There is more to the distaff pedigree of Nobiz Like Shobiz than speed, however. Nightstorm is out of the Halo mare Halo’s Daughter, bringing in the staying line of Hail to Reason. The next dam, Lilt, is a full sister to 1973 Kentucky Oaks (gr. II) winner Bag of Tunes and is by the noted stamina influence Herbager.

Nobiz Like Shobiz’ pedigree is dominated by horses who were better runners at 3 and beyond than at 2, and he himself is giving every sign of fitting that pattern. Since he has been good enough to win graded events in style while still physically growing and mentally immature, one wonders just how good he will be when he finally comes into his full heritage. Given the quality already seen in Act I of his career, one can only say, "On with the show!"